National and Subnational estimates for Italy

Identifying changes in the reproduction number, rate of spread, and doubling time during the course of the COVID-19 outbreak whilst accounting for potential biases due to delays in case reporting both nationally and subnationally in Italy.

Table of Contents

National summary

Summary
Estimate
Cases with date of onset on the day of report generation 1219 – 8670
Expected change in daily cases Likely increasing
Effective reproduction no. 1 – 1.6
Rate of spread -0.55 – 0.26
Doubling time (days) 2.7 – Cases decreasing
Adjusted R-squared 0.43 – 0.98


Table 1: Latest estimates of the number of cases by date of onset, the expected change in daily cases, the effective reproduction number, the rate of spread, the doubling time, and the adjusted R-squared of the exponential fit. Based on the last 7 days of data. The 95% credible interval is shown for each numeric estimate.

Reported and estimated cases by date of onset and time-varying reproduction number estimates


Figure 1: A.) Cases by date of report (bars) and estimated cases by date of onset. B.) Time-varying estimate of the effective reproduction number. Light grey ribbon = 95% credible interval. Dark grey ribbon = the interquartile range. Confidence in the estimated values is indicated by shading with reduced shading corresponding to reduced confidence.

Time-varying rate of spread and doubling time


Figure 2: A.) Time-varying estimate of the rate of spread, B.) Time-varying estimate of the doubling time in days (note that when the rate of spread is negative the doubling time is assumed to be infinite), C.) The adjusted R-squared estimates indicating the goodness of fit of the exponential regression model (with values closer to 1 indicating a better fit). Light grey ribbon = 95% credible interval; dark grey ribbon = the interquartile range. Confidence in the estimated values is indicated by shading with reduced shading corresponding to reduced confidence.

Regional Breakdown

Data availability

Expected daily cases by region


Figure 3: Map of the expected change in daily cases

Summary of latest reproduction number and case count estimates


Figure 4: Cases with date of onset on the day of report generation and the time-varying estimate of the effective reproduction number (bar = 95% credible interval). regions are ordered by the number of expected daily cases and shaded based on the expected change in daily cases. The dotted line indicates the target value of 1 for the effective reproduction no. required for control and a single case required fror elimination.

Reproduction numbers over time in the six regions with the most cases currently


Figure 5: Time-varying estimate of the effective reproduction number (light grey ribbon = 95% credible interval; dark grey ribbon = the interquartile range) in the regions expected to have the highest number of incident cases. Confidence in the estimated values is indicated by shading with reduced shading corresponding to reduced confidence. The dotted line indicates the target value of 1 for the effective reproduction no. required for control.

Cases with date of onset on the day of report generation in the six regions with the most cases currently


Figure 6: Cases by date of report (bars) and estimated cases by date of onset (light grey ribbon = 95% credible interval; dark grey ribbon = the interquartile range) in the countries/regions expected to have the highest number of incident cases. Confidence in the estimated values is indicated by shading with reduced shading corresponding to reduced confidence.

Reproduction numbers over time in all regions


Figure 7: Time-varying estimate of the effective reproduction number (light grey ribbon = 95% credible interval; dark grey ribbon = the interquartile range) in all regions. Confidence in the estimated values is indicated by shading with reduced shading corresponding to reduced confidence. The dotted line indicates the target value of 1 for the effective reproduction no. required for control.

Cases with date of onset on the day of report generation in all regions

Figure 8: Cases by date of report (bars) and estimated cases by date of onset (light grey ribbon = 95% credible interval; dark grey ribbon = the interquartile range) in all regions. Confidence in the estimated values is indicated by shading with reduced shading corresponding to reduced confidence.

Latest estimates summary table

Region Cases with date of onset on the day of report generation Expected change in daily cases Effective reproduction no. Doubling time (days)
Abruzzo 36 – 140 Increasing 1.3 – 2.4 2.6 – Cases decreasing
Basilicata 3 – 25 Increasing 1.9 – 4 1.7 – Cases decreasing
Calabria 10 – 47 Increasing 1.2 – 2.5 2.7 – Cases decreasing
Campania 72 – 183 Increasing 1.4 – 2.7 1.4 – Cases decreasing
Emilia Romagna 568 – 1231 Increasing 1.3 – 1.9 4.9 – 47
Friuli Venezia Giulia 27 – 199 Likely increasing 1 – 2.3 2.5 – 68
Lazio 41 – 280 Increasing 1.3 – 2.1 4 – Cases decreasing
Liguria 102 – 379 Increasing 1.3 – 2.3 3.9 – Cases decreasing
Lombardia 2452 – 5808 Increasing 1.3 – 2 3.9 – 20
Marche 147 – 274 Increasing 1.1 – 1.4 6.6 – Cases decreasing
Molise 2 – 24 Increasing 1.6 – 4 0.94 – Cases decreasing
Piemonte 220 – 536 Increasing 1.2 – 2 4.2 – Cases decreasing
Puglia 31 – 134 Increasing 1.2 – 2.3 3.2 – Cases decreasing
Sardegna 17 – 56 Increasing 1.5 – 2.2 2.3 – Cases decreasing
Sicilia 31 – 166 Increasing 1.3 – 2.6 3.5 – Cases decreasing
Toscana 112 – 379 Increasing 1.1 – 1.8 4.2 – Cases decreasing
Trentino Alto Adige 99 – 461 Increasing 1.2 – 2.2 2.3 – 47
Umbria 45 – 114 Increasing 1.5 – 2.5 2.3 – 26
Valle D’aosta 16 – 91 Increasing 1.4 – 3 3.5 – Cases decreasing
Veneto 503 – 836 Increasing 1.3 – 1.8 4.4 – 43


Table 2: Latest estimates of the number of cases by date of onset, the effective reproduction number, and the doubling time in each rregion. Based on the last 7 days of data. The 95\% credible interval is shown for each numeric estimate.

Regional reports

Abruzzo

Summary
Estimate
Cases with date of onset on the day of report generation 36 – 140
Expected change in daily cases Increasing
Effective reproduction no. 1.3 – 2.4
Rate of spread -0.011 – 0.27
Doubling time (days) 2.6 – Cases decreasing
Adjusted R-squared -0.13 – 0.93


Table 3: Latest estimates of the number of cases by date of onset, the expected change in daily cases, the effective reproduction number, the rate of spread, the doubling time, and the adjusted R-squared of the exponential fit. Based on the last 7 days of data. The 95% credible interval is shown for each numeric estimate.

Reported and estimated cases by date of onset and time-varying reproduction number estimates


Figure 9: A.) Cases by date of report (bars) and estimated cases by date of onset. B.) Time-varying estimate of the effective reproduction number. Light grey ribbon = 95% credible interval. Dark grey ribbon = the interquartile range. Confidence in the estimated values is indicated by shading with reduced shading corresponding to reduced confidence.

Time-varying rate of spread and doubling time


Figure 10: A.) Time-varying estimate of the rate of spread, B.) Time-varying estimate of the doubling time in days (note that when the rate of spread is negative the doubling time is assumed to be infinite), C.) The adjusted R-squared estimates indicating the goodness of fit of the exponential regression model (with values closer to 1 indicating a better fit). Light grey ribbon = 95% credible interval; dark grey ribbon = the interquartile range. Confidence in the estimated values is indicated by shading with reduced shading corresponding to reduced confidence.

Basilicata

Summary
Estimate
Cases with date of onset on the day of report generation 3 – 25
Expected change in daily cases Increasing
Effective reproduction no. 1.9 – 4
Rate of spread -0.049 – 0.4
Doubling time (days) 1.7 – Cases decreasing
Adjusted R-squared -0.11 – 0.95


Table 4: Latest estimates of the number of cases by date of onset, the expected change in daily cases, the effective reproduction number, the rate of spread, the doubling time, and the adjusted R-squared of the exponential fit. Based on the last 7 days of data. The 95% credible interval is shown for each numeric estimate.

Reported and estimated cases by date of onset and time-varying reproduction number estimates


Figure 11: A.) Cases by date of report (bars) and estimated cases by date of onset. B.) Time-varying estimate of the effective reproduction number. Light grey ribbon = 95% credible interval. Dark grey ribbon = the interquartile range. Confidence in the estimated values is indicated by shading with reduced shading corresponding to reduced confidence.

Time-varying rate of spread and doubling time


Figure 12: A.) Time-varying estimate of the rate of spread, B.) Time-varying estimate of the doubling time in days (note that when the rate of spread is negative the doubling time is assumed to be infinite), C.) The adjusted R-squared estimates indicating the goodness of fit of the exponential regression model (with values closer to 1 indicating a better fit). Light grey ribbon = 95% credible interval; dark grey ribbon = the interquartile range. Confidence in the estimated values is indicated by shading with reduced shading corresponding to reduced confidence.

Calabria

Summary
Estimate
Cases with date of onset on the day of report generation 10 – 47
Expected change in daily cases Increasing
Effective reproduction no. 1.2 – 2.5
Rate of spread -0.34 – 0.26
Doubling time (days) 2.7 – Cases decreasing
Adjusted R-squared -0.49 – 0.71


Table 5: Latest estimates of the number of cases by date of onset, the expected change in daily cases, the effective reproduction number, the rate of spread, the doubling time, and the adjusted R-squared of the exponential fit. Based on the last 7 days of data. The 95% credible interval is shown for each numeric estimate.

Reported and estimated cases by date of onset and time-varying reproduction number estimates


Figure 13: A.) Cases by date of report (bars) and estimated cases by date of onset. B.) Time-varying estimate of the effective reproduction number. Light grey ribbon = 95% credible interval. Dark grey ribbon = the interquartile range. Confidence in the estimated values is indicated by shading with reduced shading corresponding to reduced confidence.

Time-varying rate of spread and doubling time


Figure 14: A.) Time-varying estimate of the rate of spread, B.) Time-varying estimate of the doubling time in days (note that when the rate of spread is negative the doubling time is assumed to be infinite), C.) The adjusted R-squared estimates indicating the goodness of fit of the exponential regression model (with values closer to 1 indicating a better fit). Light grey ribbon = 95% credible interval; dark grey ribbon = the interquartile range. Confidence in the estimated values is indicated by shading with reduced shading corresponding to reduced confidence.

Campania

Summary
Estimate
Cases with date of onset on the day of report generation 72 – 183
Expected change in daily cases Increasing
Effective reproduction no. 1.4 – 2.7
Rate of spread -0.075 – 0.5
Doubling time (days) 1.4 – Cases decreasing
Adjusted R-squared -0.18 – 0.69


Table 6: Latest estimates of the number of cases by date of onset, the expected change in daily cases, the effective reproduction number, the rate of spread, the doubling time, and the adjusted R-squared of the exponential fit. Based on the last 7 days of data. The 95% credible interval is shown for each numeric estimate.

Reported and estimated cases by date of onset and time-varying reproduction number estimates


Figure 15: A.) Cases by date of report (bars) and estimated cases by date of onset. B.) Time-varying estimate of the effective reproduction number. Light grey ribbon = 95% credible interval. Dark grey ribbon = the interquartile range. Confidence in the estimated values is indicated by shading with reduced shading corresponding to reduced confidence.

Time-varying rate of spread and doubling time


Figure 16: A.) Time-varying estimate of the rate of spread, B.) Time-varying estimate of the doubling time in days (note that when the rate of spread is negative the doubling time is assumed to be infinite), C.) The adjusted R-squared estimates indicating the goodness of fit of the exponential regression model (with values closer to 1 indicating a better fit). Light grey ribbon = 95% credible interval; dark grey ribbon = the interquartile range. Confidence in the estimated values is indicated by shading with reduced shading corresponding to reduced confidence.

Emilia Romagna

Summary
Estimate
Cases with date of onset on the day of report generation 568 – 1231
Expected change in daily cases Increasing
Effective reproduction no. 1.3 – 1.9
Rate of spread 0.015 – 0.14
Doubling time (days) 4.9 – 47
Adjusted R-squared 0.068 – 0.92


Table 7: Latest estimates of the number of cases by date of onset, the expected change in daily cases, the effective reproduction number, the rate of spread, the doubling time, and the adjusted R-squared of the exponential fit. Based on the last 7 days of data. The 95% credible interval is shown for each numeric estimate.

Reported and estimated cases by date of onset and time-varying reproduction number estimates


Figure 17: A.) Cases by date of report (bars) and estimated cases by date of onset. B.) Time-varying estimate of the effective reproduction number. Light grey ribbon = 95% credible interval. Dark grey ribbon = the interquartile range. Confidence in the estimated values is indicated by shading with reduced shading corresponding to reduced confidence.

Time-varying rate of spread and doubling time


Figure 18: A.) Time-varying estimate of the rate of spread, B.) Time-varying estimate of the doubling time in days (note that when the rate of spread is negative the doubling time is assumed to be infinite), C.) The adjusted R-squared estimates indicating the goodness of fit of the exponential regression model (with values closer to 1 indicating a better fit). Light grey ribbon = 95% credible interval; dark grey ribbon = the interquartile range. Confidence in the estimated values is indicated by shading with reduced shading corresponding to reduced confidence.

Friuli Venezia Giulia

Summary
Estimate
Cases with date of onset on the day of report generation 27 – 199
Expected change in daily cases Likely increasing
Effective reproduction no. 1 – 2.3
Rate of spread 0.01 – 0.28
Doubling time (days) 2.5 – 68
Adjusted R-squared 0.068 – 0.88


Table 8: Latest estimates of the number of cases by date of onset, the expected change in daily cases, the effective reproduction number, the rate of spread, the doubling time, and the adjusted R-squared of the exponential fit. Based on the last 7 days of data. The 95% credible interval is shown for each numeric estimate.

Reported and estimated cases by date of onset and time-varying reproduction number estimates


Figure 19: A.) Cases by date of report (bars) and estimated cases by date of onset. B.) Time-varying estimate of the effective reproduction number. Light grey ribbon = 95% credible interval. Dark grey ribbon = the interquartile range. Confidence in the estimated values is indicated by shading with reduced shading corresponding to reduced confidence.

Time-varying rate of spread and doubling time


Figure 20: A.) Time-varying estimate of the rate of spread, B.) Time-varying estimate of the doubling time in days (note that when the rate of spread is negative the doubling time is assumed to be infinite), C.) The adjusted R-squared estimates indicating the goodness of fit of the exponential regression model (with values closer to 1 indicating a better fit). Light grey ribbon = 95% credible interval; dark grey ribbon = the interquartile range. Confidence in the estimated values is indicated by shading with reduced shading corresponding to reduced confidence.

Lazio

Summary
Estimate
Cases with date of onset on the day of report generation 41 – 280
Expected change in daily cases Increasing
Effective reproduction no. 1.3 – 2.1
Rate of spread -0.81 – 0.17
Doubling time (days) 4 – Cases decreasing
Adjusted R-squared -0.044 – 0.86


Table 9: Latest estimates of the number of cases by date of onset, the expected change in daily cases, the effective reproduction number, the rate of spread, the doubling time, and the adjusted R-squared of the exponential fit. Based on the last 7 days of data. The 95% credible interval is shown for each numeric estimate.

Reported and estimated cases by date of onset and time-varying reproduction number estimates


Figure 21: A.) Cases by date of report (bars) and estimated cases by date of onset. B.) Time-varying estimate of the effective reproduction number. Light grey ribbon = 95% credible interval. Dark grey ribbon = the interquartile range. Confidence in the estimated values is indicated by shading with reduced shading corresponding to reduced confidence.

Time-varying rate of spread and doubling time


Figure 22: A.) Time-varying estimate of the rate of spread, B.) Time-varying estimate of the doubling time in days (note that when the rate of spread is negative the doubling time is assumed to be infinite), C.) The adjusted R-squared estimates indicating the goodness of fit of the exponential regression model (with values closer to 1 indicating a better fit). Light grey ribbon = 95% credible interval; dark grey ribbon = the interquartile range. Confidence in the estimated values is indicated by shading with reduced shading corresponding to reduced confidence.

Liguria

Summary
Estimate
Cases with date of onset on the day of report generation 102 – 379
Expected change in daily cases Increasing
Effective reproduction no. 1.3 – 2.3
Rate of spread -0.11 – 0.18
Doubling time (days) 3.9 – Cases decreasing
Adjusted R-squared -0.17 – 0.86


Table 10: Latest estimates of the number of cases by date of onset, the expected change in daily cases, the effective reproduction number, the rate of spread, the doubling time, and the adjusted R-squared of the exponential fit. Based on the last 7 days of data. The 95% credible interval is shown for each numeric estimate.

Reported and estimated cases by date of onset and time-varying reproduction number estimates


Figure 23: A.) Cases by date of report (bars) and estimated cases by date of onset. B.) Time-varying estimate of the effective reproduction number. Light grey ribbon = 95% credible interval. Dark grey ribbon = the interquartile range. Confidence in the estimated values is indicated by shading with reduced shading corresponding to reduced confidence.

Time-varying rate of spread and doubling time


Figure 24: A.) Time-varying estimate of the rate of spread, B.) Time-varying estimate of the doubling time in days (note that when the rate of spread is negative the doubling time is assumed to be infinite), C.) The adjusted R-squared estimates indicating the goodness of fit of the exponential regression model (with values closer to 1 indicating a better fit). Light grey ribbon = 95% credible interval; dark grey ribbon = the interquartile range. Confidence in the estimated values is indicated by shading with reduced shading corresponding to reduced confidence.

Lombardia

Summary
Estimate
Cases with date of onset on the day of report generation 2452 – 5808
Expected change in daily cases Increasing
Effective reproduction no. 1.3 – 2
Rate of spread 0.034 – 0.18
Doubling time (days) 3.9 – 20
Adjusted R-squared 0.48 – 0.91


Table 11: Latest estimates of the number of cases by date of onset, the expected change in daily cases, the effective reproduction number, the rate of spread, the doubling time, and the adjusted R-squared of the exponential fit. Based on the last 7 days of data. The 95% credible interval is shown for each numeric estimate.

Reported and estimated cases by date of onset and time-varying reproduction number estimates


Figure 25: A.) Cases by date of report (bars) and estimated cases by date of onset. B.) Time-varying estimate of the effective reproduction number. Light grey ribbon = 95% credible interval. Dark grey ribbon = the interquartile range. Confidence in the estimated values is indicated by shading with reduced shading corresponding to reduced confidence.

Time-varying rate of spread and doubling time


Figure 26: A.) Time-varying estimate of the rate of spread, B.) Time-varying estimate of the doubling time in days (note that when the rate of spread is negative the doubling time is assumed to be infinite), C.) The adjusted R-squared estimates indicating the goodness of fit of the exponential regression model (with values closer to 1 indicating a better fit). Light grey ribbon = 95% credible interval; dark grey ribbon = the interquartile range. Confidence in the estimated values is indicated by shading with reduced shading corresponding to reduced confidence.

Marche

Summary
Estimate
Cases with date of onset on the day of report generation 147 – 274
Expected change in daily cases Increasing
Effective reproduction no. 1.1 – 1.4
Rate of spread -0.016 – 0.11
Doubling time (days) 6.6 – Cases decreasing
Adjusted R-squared -0.1 – 0.69


Table 12: Latest estimates of the number of cases by date of onset, the expected change in daily cases, the effective reproduction number, the rate of spread, the doubling time, and the adjusted R-squared of the exponential fit. Based on the last 7 days of data. The 95% credible interval is shown for each numeric estimate.

Reported and estimated cases by date of onset and time-varying reproduction number estimates


Figure 27: A.) Cases by date of report (bars) and estimated cases by date of onset. B.) Time-varying estimate of the effective reproduction number. Light grey ribbon = 95% credible interval. Dark grey ribbon = the interquartile range. Confidence in the estimated values is indicated by shading with reduced shading corresponding to reduced confidence.

Time-varying rate of spread and doubling time


Figure 28: A.) Time-varying estimate of the rate of spread, B.) Time-varying estimate of the doubling time in days (note that when the rate of spread is negative the doubling time is assumed to be infinite), C.) The adjusted R-squared estimates indicating the goodness of fit of the exponential regression model (with values closer to 1 indicating a better fit). Light grey ribbon = 95% credible interval; dark grey ribbon = the interquartile range. Confidence in the estimated values is indicated by shading with reduced shading corresponding to reduced confidence.

Molise

Summary
Estimate
Cases with date of onset on the day of report generation 2 – 24
Expected change in daily cases Increasing
Effective reproduction no. 1.6 – 4
Rate of spread -0.74 – 0.74
Doubling time (days) 0.94 – Cases decreasing
Adjusted R-squared -1 – 0.64


Table 13: Latest estimates of the number of cases by date of onset, the expected change in daily cases, the effective reproduction number, the rate of spread, the doubling time, and the adjusted R-squared of the exponential fit. Based on the last 7 days of data. The 95% credible interval is shown for each numeric estimate.

Reported and estimated cases by date of onset and time-varying reproduction number estimates


Figure 29: A.) Cases by date of report (bars) and estimated cases by date of onset. B.) Time-varying estimate of the effective reproduction number. Light grey ribbon = 95% credible interval. Dark grey ribbon = the interquartile range. Confidence in the estimated values is indicated by shading with reduced shading corresponding to reduced confidence.

Time-varying rate of spread and doubling time


Figure 30: A.) Time-varying estimate of the rate of spread, B.) Time-varying estimate of the doubling time in days (note that when the rate of spread is negative the doubling time is assumed to be infinite), C.) The adjusted R-squared estimates indicating the goodness of fit of the exponential regression model (with values closer to 1 indicating a better fit). Light grey ribbon = 95% credible interval; dark grey ribbon = the interquartile range. Confidence in the estimated values is indicated by shading with reduced shading corresponding to reduced confidence.

Piemonte

Summary
Estimate
Cases with date of onset on the day of report generation 220 – 536
Expected change in daily cases Increasing
Effective reproduction no. 1.2 – 2
Rate of spread -0.14 – 0.17
Doubling time (days) 4.2 – Cases decreasing
Adjusted R-squared -0.19 – 0.95


Table 14: Latest estimates of the number of cases by date of onset, the expected change in daily cases, the effective reproduction number, the rate of spread, the doubling time, and the adjusted R-squared of the exponential fit. Based on the last 7 days of data. The 95% credible interval is shown for each numeric estimate.

Reported and estimated cases by date of onset and time-varying reproduction number estimates


Figure 31: A.) Cases by date of report (bars) and estimated cases by date of onset. B.) Time-varying estimate of the effective reproduction number. Light grey ribbon = 95% credible interval. Dark grey ribbon = the interquartile range. Confidence in the estimated values is indicated by shading with reduced shading corresponding to reduced confidence.

Time-varying rate of spread and doubling time


Figure 32: A.) Time-varying estimate of the rate of spread, B.) Time-varying estimate of the doubling time in days (note that when the rate of spread is negative the doubling time is assumed to be infinite), C.) The adjusted R-squared estimates indicating the goodness of fit of the exponential regression model (with values closer to 1 indicating a better fit). Light grey ribbon = 95% credible interval; dark grey ribbon = the interquartile range. Confidence in the estimated values is indicated by shading with reduced shading corresponding to reduced confidence.

Puglia

Summary
Estimate
Cases with date of onset on the day of report generation 31 – 134
Expected change in daily cases Increasing
Effective reproduction no. 1.2 – 2.3
Rate of spread -0.32 – 0.22
Doubling time (days) 3.2 – Cases decreasing
Adjusted R-squared 0.13 – 0.98


Table 15: Latest estimates of the number of cases by date of onset, the expected change in daily cases, the effective reproduction number, the rate of spread, the doubling time, and the adjusted R-squared of the exponential fit. Based on the last 7 days of data. The 95% credible interval is shown for each numeric estimate.

Reported and estimated cases by date of onset and time-varying reproduction number estimates


Figure 33: A.) Cases by date of report (bars) and estimated cases by date of onset. B.) Time-varying estimate of the effective reproduction number. Light grey ribbon = 95% credible interval. Dark grey ribbon = the interquartile range. Confidence in the estimated values is indicated by shading with reduced shading corresponding to reduced confidence.

Time-varying rate of spread and doubling time


Figure 34: A.) Time-varying estimate of the rate of spread, B.) Time-varying estimate of the doubling time in days (note that when the rate of spread is negative the doubling time is assumed to be infinite), C.) The adjusted R-squared estimates indicating the goodness of fit of the exponential regression model (with values closer to 1 indicating a better fit). Light grey ribbon = 95% credible interval; dark grey ribbon = the interquartile range. Confidence in the estimated values is indicated by shading with reduced shading corresponding to reduced confidence.

Sardegna

Summary
Estimate
Cases with date of onset on the day of report generation 17 – 56
Expected change in daily cases Increasing
Effective reproduction no. 1.5 – 2.2
Rate of spread -0.1 – 0.3
Doubling time (days) 2.3 – Cases decreasing
Adjusted R-squared -0.19 – 0.92


Table 16: Latest estimates of the number of cases by date of onset, the expected change in daily cases, the effective reproduction number, the rate of spread, the doubling time, and the adjusted R-squared of the exponential fit. Based on the last 7 days of data. The 95% credible interval is shown for each numeric estimate.

Reported and estimated cases by date of onset and time-varying reproduction number estimates


Figure 35: A.) Cases by date of report (bars) and estimated cases by date of onset. B.) Time-varying estimate of the effective reproduction number. Light grey ribbon = 95% credible interval. Dark grey ribbon = the interquartile range. Confidence in the estimated values is indicated by shading with reduced shading corresponding to reduced confidence.

Time-varying rate of spread and doubling time


Figure 36: A.) Time-varying estimate of the rate of spread, B.) Time-varying estimate of the doubling time in days (note that when the rate of spread is negative the doubling time is assumed to be infinite), C.) The adjusted R-squared estimates indicating the goodness of fit of the exponential regression model (with values closer to 1 indicating a better fit). Light grey ribbon = 95% credible interval; dark grey ribbon = the interquartile range. Confidence in the estimated values is indicated by shading with reduced shading corresponding to reduced confidence.

Sicilia

Summary
Estimate
Cases with date of onset on the day of report generation 31 – 166
Expected change in daily cases Increasing
Effective reproduction no. 1.3 – 2.6
Rate of spread -0.099 – 0.2
Doubling time (days) 3.5 – Cases decreasing
Adjusted R-squared -0.03 – 0.94


Table 17: Latest estimates of the number of cases by date of onset, the expected change in daily cases, the effective reproduction number, the rate of spread, the doubling time, and the adjusted R-squared of the exponential fit. Based on the last 7 days of data. The 95% credible interval is shown for each numeric estimate.

Reported and estimated cases by date of onset and time-varying reproduction number estimates


Figure 37: A.) Cases by date of report (bars) and estimated cases by date of onset. B.) Time-varying estimate of the effective reproduction number. Light grey ribbon = 95% credible interval. Dark grey ribbon = the interquartile range. Confidence in the estimated values is indicated by shading with reduced shading corresponding to reduced confidence.

Time-varying rate of spread and doubling time


Figure 38: A.) Time-varying estimate of the rate of spread, B.) Time-varying estimate of the doubling time in days (note that when the rate of spread is negative the doubling time is assumed to be infinite), C.) The adjusted R-squared estimates indicating the goodness of fit of the exponential regression model (with values closer to 1 indicating a better fit). Light grey ribbon = 95% credible interval; dark grey ribbon = the interquartile range. Confidence in the estimated values is indicated by shading with reduced shading corresponding to reduced confidence.

Toscana

Summary
Estimate
Cases with date of onset on the day of report generation 112 – 379
Expected change in daily cases Increasing
Effective reproduction no. 1.1 – 1.8
Rate of spread -0.13 – 0.16
Doubling time (days) 4.2 – Cases decreasing
Adjusted R-squared -0.12 – 0.93


Table 18: Latest estimates of the number of cases by date of onset, the expected change in daily cases, the effective reproduction number, the rate of spread, the doubling time, and the adjusted R-squared of the exponential fit. Based on the last 7 days of data. The 95% credible interval is shown for each numeric estimate.

Reported and estimated cases by date of onset and time-varying reproduction number estimates


Figure 39: A.) Cases by date of report (bars) and estimated cases by date of onset. B.) Time-varying estimate of the effective reproduction number. Light grey ribbon = 95% credible interval. Dark grey ribbon = the interquartile range. Confidence in the estimated values is indicated by shading with reduced shading corresponding to reduced confidence.

Time-varying rate of spread and doubling time


Figure 40: A.) Time-varying estimate of the rate of spread, B.) Time-varying estimate of the doubling time in days (note that when the rate of spread is negative the doubling time is assumed to be infinite), C.) The adjusted R-squared estimates indicating the goodness of fit of the exponential regression model (with values closer to 1 indicating a better fit). Light grey ribbon = 95% credible interval; dark grey ribbon = the interquartile range. Confidence in the estimated values is indicated by shading with reduced shading corresponding to reduced confidence.

Trentino Alto Adige

Summary
Estimate
Cases with date of onset on the day of report generation 99 – 461
Expected change in daily cases Increasing
Effective reproduction no. 1.2 – 2.2
Rate of spread 0.015 – 0.3
Doubling time (days) 2.3 – 47
Adjusted R-squared 0.15 – 0.89


Table 19: Latest estimates of the number of cases by date of onset, the expected change in daily cases, the effective reproduction number, the rate of spread, the doubling time, and the adjusted R-squared of the exponential fit. Based on the last 7 days of data. The 95% credible interval is shown for each numeric estimate.

Reported and estimated cases by date of onset and time-varying reproduction number estimates


Figure 41: A.) Cases by date of report (bars) and estimated cases by date of onset. B.) Time-varying estimate of the effective reproduction number. Light grey ribbon = 95% credible interval. Dark grey ribbon = the interquartile range. Confidence in the estimated values is indicated by shading with reduced shading corresponding to reduced confidence.

Time-varying rate of spread and doubling time


Figure 42: A.) Time-varying estimate of the rate of spread, B.) Time-varying estimate of the doubling time in days (note that when the rate of spread is negative the doubling time is assumed to be infinite), C.) The adjusted R-squared estimates indicating the goodness of fit of the exponential regression model (with values closer to 1 indicating a better fit). Light grey ribbon = 95% credible interval; dark grey ribbon = the interquartile range. Confidence in the estimated values is indicated by shading with reduced shading corresponding to reduced confidence.

Umbria

Summary
Estimate
Cases with date of onset on the day of report generation 45 – 114
Expected change in daily cases Increasing
Effective reproduction no. 1.5 – 2.5
Rate of spread 0.026 – 0.3
Doubling time (days) 2.3 – 26
Adjusted R-squared 0.073 – 0.94


Table 20: Latest estimates of the number of cases by date of onset, the expected change in daily cases, the effective reproduction number, the rate of spread, the doubling time, and the adjusted R-squared of the exponential fit. Based on the last 7 days of data. The 95% credible interval is shown for each numeric estimate.

Reported and estimated cases by date of onset and time-varying reproduction number estimates


Figure 43: A.) Cases by date of report (bars) and estimated cases by date of onset. B.) Time-varying estimate of the effective reproduction number. Light grey ribbon = 95% credible interval. Dark grey ribbon = the interquartile range. Confidence in the estimated values is indicated by shading with reduced shading corresponding to reduced confidence.

Time-varying rate of spread and doubling time


Figure 44: A.) Time-varying estimate of the rate of spread, B.) Time-varying estimate of the doubling time in days (note that when the rate of spread is negative the doubling time is assumed to be infinite), C.) The adjusted R-squared estimates indicating the goodness of fit of the exponential regression model (with values closer to 1 indicating a better fit). Light grey ribbon = 95% credible interval; dark grey ribbon = the interquartile range. Confidence in the estimated values is indicated by shading with reduced shading corresponding to reduced confidence.

Valle D’aosta

Summary
Estimate
Cases with date of onset on the day of report generation 16 – 91
Expected change in daily cases Increasing
Effective reproduction no. 1.4 – 3
Rate of spread -0.25 – 0.2
Doubling time (days) 3.5 – Cases decreasing
Adjusted R-squared -0.25 – 0.86


Table 21: Latest estimates of the number of cases by date of onset, the expected change in daily cases, the effective reproduction number, the rate of spread, the doubling time, and the adjusted R-squared of the exponential fit. Based on the last 7 days of data. The 95% credible interval is shown for each numeric estimate.

Reported and estimated cases by date of onset and time-varying reproduction number estimates


Figure 45: A.) Cases by date of report (bars) and estimated cases by date of onset. B.) Time-varying estimate of the effective reproduction number. Light grey ribbon = 95% credible interval. Dark grey ribbon = the interquartile range. Confidence in the estimated values is indicated by shading with reduced shading corresponding to reduced confidence.

Time-varying rate of spread and doubling time


Figure 46: A.) Time-varying estimate of the rate of spread, B.) Time-varying estimate of the doubling time in days (note that when the rate of spread is negative the doubling time is assumed to be infinite), C.) The adjusted R-squared estimates indicating the goodness of fit of the exponential regression model (with values closer to 1 indicating a better fit). Light grey ribbon = 95% credible interval; dark grey ribbon = the interquartile range. Confidence in the estimated values is indicated by shading with reduced shading corresponding to reduced confidence.

Veneto

Summary
Estimate
Cases with date of onset on the day of report generation 503 – 836
Expected change in daily cases Increasing
Effective reproduction no. 1.3 – 1.8
Rate of spread 0.016 – 0.16
Doubling time (days) 4.4 – 43
Adjusted R-squared 0.056 – 0.89


Table 22: Latest estimates of the number of cases by date of onset, the expected change in daily cases, the effective reproduction number, the rate of spread, the doubling time, and the adjusted R-squared of the exponential fit. Based on the last 7 days of data. The 95% credible interval is shown for each numeric estimate.

Reported and estimated cases by date of onset and time-varying reproduction number estimates


Figure 47: A.) Cases by date of report (bars) and estimated cases by date of onset. B.) Time-varying estimate of the effective reproduction number. Light grey ribbon = 95% credible interval. Dark grey ribbon = the interquartile range. Confidence in the estimated values is indicated by shading with reduced shading corresponding to reduced confidence.

Time-varying rate of spread and doubling time


Figure 48: A.) Time-varying estimate of the rate of spread, B.) Time-varying estimate of the doubling time in days (note that when the rate of spread is negative the doubling time is assumed to be infinite), C.) The adjusted R-squared estimates indicating the goodness of fit of the exponential regression model (with values closer to 1 indicating a better fit). Light grey ribbon = 95% credible interval; dark grey ribbon = the interquartile range. Confidence in the estimated values is indicated by shading with reduced shading corresponding to reduced confidence.

Abbott, Sam, Joel Hellewell, James D. Munday, and Sebastian Funk. 2020. “NCoVUtils: Utility Functions for the 2019-Ncov Outbreak.” - - (-): –. https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.3635417.

Dipartimento della Protezione Civile. n.d. “Dati COVID-19 Italia.” https://github.com/pcm-dpc/COVID-19.

Xu, Bo, Bernardo Gutierrez, Sarah Hill, Samuel Scarpino, Alyssa Loskill, Jessie Wu, Kara Sewalk, et al. 2020. “Epidemiological Data from the nCoV-2019 Outbreak: Early Descriptions from Publicly Available Data.” Accessed on 2020-01-26 from http://virological.org/t/epidemiological-data-from-the-ncov-2019-outbreak-early-descriptions-from-publicly-available-data/337.

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