Identifying changes in the reproduction number, rate of spread, and doubling time during the course of the COVID-19 outbreak whilst accounting for potential biases due to delays in case reporting both nationally and subnationally in Italy.
| Estimate | |
|---|---|
| Cases with date of onset on the day of report generation | 1219 – 8670 |
| Expected change in daily cases | Likely increasing |
| Effective reproduction no. | 1 – 1.6 |
| Rate of spread | -0.55 – 0.26 |
| Doubling time (days) | 2.7 – Cases decreasing |
| Adjusted R-squared | 0.43 – 0.98 |
Table 1: Latest estimates of the number of cases by date of onset, the expected change in daily cases, the effective reproduction number, the rate of spread, the doubling time, and the adjusted R-squared of the exponential fit. Based on the last 7 days of data. The 95% credible interval is shown for each numeric estimate.
Figure 1: A.) Cases by date of report (bars) and estimated cases by date of onset. B.) Time-varying estimate of the effective reproduction number. Light grey ribbon = 95% credible interval. Dark grey ribbon = the interquartile range. Confidence in the estimated values is indicated by shading with reduced shading corresponding to reduced confidence.
Figure 2: A.) Time-varying estimate of the rate of spread, B.) Time-varying estimate of the doubling time in days (note that when the rate of spread is negative the doubling time is assumed to be infinite), C.) The adjusted R-squared estimates indicating the goodness of fit of the exponential regression model (with values closer to 1 indicating a better fit). Light grey ribbon = 95% credible interval; dark grey ribbon = the interquartile range. Confidence in the estimated values is indicated by shading with reduced shading corresponding to reduced confidence.
Figure 3: Map of the expected change in daily cases
Figure 4: Cases with date of onset on the day of report generation and the time-varying estimate of the effective reproduction number (bar = 95% credible interval). regions are ordered by the number of expected daily cases and shaded based on the expected change in daily cases. The dotted line indicates the target value of 1 for the effective reproduction no. required for control and a single case required fror elimination.
Figure 5: Time-varying estimate of the effective reproduction number (light grey ribbon = 95% credible interval; dark grey ribbon = the interquartile range) in the regions expected to have the highest number of incident cases. Confidence in the estimated values is indicated by shading with reduced shading corresponding to reduced confidence. The dotted line indicates the target value of 1 for the effective reproduction no. required for control.
Figure 6: Cases by date of report (bars) and estimated cases by date of onset (light grey ribbon = 95% credible interval; dark grey ribbon = the interquartile range) in the countries/regions expected to have the highest number of incident cases. Confidence in the estimated values is indicated by shading with reduced shading corresponding to reduced confidence.
Figure 7: Time-varying estimate of the effective reproduction number (light grey ribbon = 95% credible interval; dark grey ribbon = the interquartile range) in all regions. Confidence in the estimated values is indicated by shading with reduced shading corresponding to reduced confidence. The dotted line indicates the target value of 1 for the effective reproduction no. required for control.
Figure 8: Cases by date of report (bars) and estimated cases by date of onset (light grey ribbon = 95% credible interval; dark grey ribbon = the interquartile range) in all regions. Confidence in the estimated values is indicated by shading with reduced shading corresponding to reduced confidence.
| Region | Cases with date of onset on the day of report generation | Expected change in daily cases | Effective reproduction no. | Doubling time (days) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Abruzzo | 36 – 140 | Increasing | 1.3 – 2.4 | 2.6 – Cases decreasing |
| Basilicata | 3 – 25 | Increasing | 1.9 – 4 | 1.7 – Cases decreasing |
| Calabria | 10 – 47 | Increasing | 1.2 – 2.5 | 2.7 – Cases decreasing |
| Campania | 72 – 183 | Increasing | 1.4 – 2.7 | 1.4 – Cases decreasing |
| Emilia Romagna | 568 – 1231 | Increasing | 1.3 – 1.9 | 4.9 – 47 |
| Friuli Venezia Giulia | 27 – 199 | Likely increasing | 1 – 2.3 | 2.5 – 68 |
| Lazio | 41 – 280 | Increasing | 1.3 – 2.1 | 4 – Cases decreasing |
| Liguria | 102 – 379 | Increasing | 1.3 – 2.3 | 3.9 – Cases decreasing |
| Lombardia | 2452 – 5808 | Increasing | 1.3 – 2 | 3.9 – 20 |
| Marche | 147 – 274 | Increasing | 1.1 – 1.4 | 6.6 – Cases decreasing |
| Molise | 2 – 24 | Increasing | 1.6 – 4 | 0.94 – Cases decreasing |
| Piemonte | 220 – 536 | Increasing | 1.2 – 2 | 4.2 – Cases decreasing |
| Puglia | 31 – 134 | Increasing | 1.2 – 2.3 | 3.2 – Cases decreasing |
| Sardegna | 17 – 56 | Increasing | 1.5 – 2.2 | 2.3 – Cases decreasing |
| Sicilia | 31 – 166 | Increasing | 1.3 – 2.6 | 3.5 – Cases decreasing |
| Toscana | 112 – 379 | Increasing | 1.1 – 1.8 | 4.2 – Cases decreasing |
| Trentino Alto Adige | 99 – 461 | Increasing | 1.2 – 2.2 | 2.3 – 47 |
| Umbria | 45 – 114 | Increasing | 1.5 – 2.5 | 2.3 – 26 |
| Valle D’aosta | 16 – 91 | Increasing | 1.4 – 3 | 3.5 – Cases decreasing |
| Veneto | 503 – 836 | Increasing | 1.3 – 1.8 | 4.4 – 43 |
Table 2: Latest estimates of the number of cases by date of onset, the effective reproduction number, and the doubling time in each rregion. Based on the last 7 days of data. The 95\% credible interval is shown for each numeric estimate.
| Estimate | |
|---|---|
| Cases with date of onset on the day of report generation | 36 – 140 |
| Expected change in daily cases | Increasing |
| Effective reproduction no. | 1.3 – 2.4 |
| Rate of spread | -0.011 – 0.27 |
| Doubling time (days) | 2.6 – Cases decreasing |
| Adjusted R-squared | -0.13 – 0.93 |
Table 3: Latest estimates of the number of cases by date of onset, the expected change in daily cases, the effective reproduction number, the rate of spread, the doubling time, and the adjusted R-squared of the exponential fit. Based on the last 7 days of data. The 95% credible interval is shown for each numeric estimate.
Figure 9: A.) Cases by date of report (bars) and estimated cases by date of onset. B.) Time-varying estimate of the effective reproduction number. Light grey ribbon = 95% credible interval. Dark grey ribbon = the interquartile range. Confidence in the estimated values is indicated by shading with reduced shading corresponding to reduced confidence.
Figure 10: A.) Time-varying estimate of the rate of spread, B.) Time-varying estimate of the doubling time in days (note that when the rate of spread is negative the doubling time is assumed to be infinite), C.) The adjusted R-squared estimates indicating the goodness of fit of the exponential regression model (with values closer to 1 indicating a better fit). Light grey ribbon = 95% credible interval; dark grey ribbon = the interquartile range. Confidence in the estimated values is indicated by shading with reduced shading corresponding to reduced confidence.
| Estimate | |
|---|---|
| Cases with date of onset on the day of report generation | 3 – 25 |
| Expected change in daily cases | Increasing |
| Effective reproduction no. | 1.9 – 4 |
| Rate of spread | -0.049 – 0.4 |
| Doubling time (days) | 1.7 – Cases decreasing |
| Adjusted R-squared | -0.11 – 0.95 |
Table 4: Latest estimates of the number of cases by date of onset, the expected change in daily cases, the effective reproduction number, the rate of spread, the doubling time, and the adjusted R-squared of the exponential fit. Based on the last 7 days of data. The 95% credible interval is shown for each numeric estimate.
Figure 11: A.) Cases by date of report (bars) and estimated cases by date of onset. B.) Time-varying estimate of the effective reproduction number. Light grey ribbon = 95% credible interval. Dark grey ribbon = the interquartile range. Confidence in the estimated values is indicated by shading with reduced shading corresponding to reduced confidence.
Figure 12: A.) Time-varying estimate of the rate of spread, B.) Time-varying estimate of the doubling time in days (note that when the rate of spread is negative the doubling time is assumed to be infinite), C.) The adjusted R-squared estimates indicating the goodness of fit of the exponential regression model (with values closer to 1 indicating a better fit). Light grey ribbon = 95% credible interval; dark grey ribbon = the interquartile range. Confidence in the estimated values is indicated by shading with reduced shading corresponding to reduced confidence.
| Estimate | |
|---|---|
| Cases with date of onset on the day of report generation | 10 – 47 |
| Expected change in daily cases | Increasing |
| Effective reproduction no. | 1.2 – 2.5 |
| Rate of spread | -0.34 – 0.26 |
| Doubling time (days) | 2.7 – Cases decreasing |
| Adjusted R-squared | -0.49 – 0.71 |
Table 5: Latest estimates of the number of cases by date of onset, the expected change in daily cases, the effective reproduction number, the rate of spread, the doubling time, and the adjusted R-squared of the exponential fit. Based on the last 7 days of data. The 95% credible interval is shown for each numeric estimate.
Figure 13: A.) Cases by date of report (bars) and estimated cases by date of onset. B.) Time-varying estimate of the effective reproduction number. Light grey ribbon = 95% credible interval. Dark grey ribbon = the interquartile range. Confidence in the estimated values is indicated by shading with reduced shading corresponding to reduced confidence.
Figure 14: A.) Time-varying estimate of the rate of spread, B.) Time-varying estimate of the doubling time in days (note that when the rate of spread is negative the doubling time is assumed to be infinite), C.) The adjusted R-squared estimates indicating the goodness of fit of the exponential regression model (with values closer to 1 indicating a better fit). Light grey ribbon = 95% credible interval; dark grey ribbon = the interquartile range. Confidence in the estimated values is indicated by shading with reduced shading corresponding to reduced confidence.
| Estimate | |
|---|---|
| Cases with date of onset on the day of report generation | 72 – 183 |
| Expected change in daily cases | Increasing |
| Effective reproduction no. | 1.4 – 2.7 |
| Rate of spread | -0.075 – 0.5 |
| Doubling time (days) | 1.4 – Cases decreasing |
| Adjusted R-squared | -0.18 – 0.69 |
Table 6: Latest estimates of the number of cases by date of onset, the expected change in daily cases, the effective reproduction number, the rate of spread, the doubling time, and the adjusted R-squared of the exponential fit. Based on the last 7 days of data. The 95% credible interval is shown for each numeric estimate.
Figure 15: A.) Cases by date of report (bars) and estimated cases by date of onset. B.) Time-varying estimate of the effective reproduction number. Light grey ribbon = 95% credible interval. Dark grey ribbon = the interquartile range. Confidence in the estimated values is indicated by shading with reduced shading corresponding to reduced confidence.
Figure 16: A.) Time-varying estimate of the rate of spread, B.) Time-varying estimate of the doubling time in days (note that when the rate of spread is negative the doubling time is assumed to be infinite), C.) The adjusted R-squared estimates indicating the goodness of fit of the exponential regression model (with values closer to 1 indicating a better fit). Light grey ribbon = 95% credible interval; dark grey ribbon = the interquartile range. Confidence in the estimated values is indicated by shading with reduced shading corresponding to reduced confidence.
| Estimate | |
|---|---|
| Cases with date of onset on the day of report generation | 568 – 1231 |
| Expected change in daily cases | Increasing |
| Effective reproduction no. | 1.3 – 1.9 |
| Rate of spread | 0.015 – 0.14 |
| Doubling time (days) | 4.9 – 47 |
| Adjusted R-squared | 0.068 – 0.92 |
Table 7: Latest estimates of the number of cases by date of onset, the expected change in daily cases, the effective reproduction number, the rate of spread, the doubling time, and the adjusted R-squared of the exponential fit. Based on the last 7 days of data. The 95% credible interval is shown for each numeric estimate.
Figure 17: A.) Cases by date of report (bars) and estimated cases by date of onset. B.) Time-varying estimate of the effective reproduction number. Light grey ribbon = 95% credible interval. Dark grey ribbon = the interquartile range. Confidence in the estimated values is indicated by shading with reduced shading corresponding to reduced confidence.
Figure 18: A.) Time-varying estimate of the rate of spread, B.) Time-varying estimate of the doubling time in days (note that when the rate of spread is negative the doubling time is assumed to be infinite), C.) The adjusted R-squared estimates indicating the goodness of fit of the exponential regression model (with values closer to 1 indicating a better fit). Light grey ribbon = 95% credible interval; dark grey ribbon = the interquartile range. Confidence in the estimated values is indicated by shading with reduced shading corresponding to reduced confidence.
| Estimate | |
|---|---|
| Cases with date of onset on the day of report generation | 27 – 199 |
| Expected change in daily cases | Likely increasing |
| Effective reproduction no. | 1 – 2.3 |
| Rate of spread | 0.01 – 0.28 |
| Doubling time (days) | 2.5 – 68 |
| Adjusted R-squared | 0.068 – 0.88 |
Table 8: Latest estimates of the number of cases by date of onset, the expected change in daily cases, the effective reproduction number, the rate of spread, the doubling time, and the adjusted R-squared of the exponential fit. Based on the last 7 days of data. The 95% credible interval is shown for each numeric estimate.
Figure 19: A.) Cases by date of report (bars) and estimated cases by date of onset. B.) Time-varying estimate of the effective reproduction number. Light grey ribbon = 95% credible interval. Dark grey ribbon = the interquartile range. Confidence in the estimated values is indicated by shading with reduced shading corresponding to reduced confidence.
Figure 20: A.) Time-varying estimate of the rate of spread, B.) Time-varying estimate of the doubling time in days (note that when the rate of spread is negative the doubling time is assumed to be infinite), C.) The adjusted R-squared estimates indicating the goodness of fit of the exponential regression model (with values closer to 1 indicating a better fit). Light grey ribbon = 95% credible interval; dark grey ribbon = the interquartile range. Confidence in the estimated values is indicated by shading with reduced shading corresponding to reduced confidence.
| Estimate | |
|---|---|
| Cases with date of onset on the day of report generation | 41 – 280 |
| Expected change in daily cases | Increasing |
| Effective reproduction no. | 1.3 – 2.1 |
| Rate of spread | -0.81 – 0.17 |
| Doubling time (days) | 4 – Cases decreasing |
| Adjusted R-squared | -0.044 – 0.86 |
Table 9: Latest estimates of the number of cases by date of onset, the expected change in daily cases, the effective reproduction number, the rate of spread, the doubling time, and the adjusted R-squared of the exponential fit. Based on the last 7 days of data. The 95% credible interval is shown for each numeric estimate.
Figure 21: A.) Cases by date of report (bars) and estimated cases by date of onset. B.) Time-varying estimate of the effective reproduction number. Light grey ribbon = 95% credible interval. Dark grey ribbon = the interquartile range. Confidence in the estimated values is indicated by shading with reduced shading corresponding to reduced confidence.
Figure 22: A.) Time-varying estimate of the rate of spread, B.) Time-varying estimate of the doubling time in days (note that when the rate of spread is negative the doubling time is assumed to be infinite), C.) The adjusted R-squared estimates indicating the goodness of fit of the exponential regression model (with values closer to 1 indicating a better fit). Light grey ribbon = 95% credible interval; dark grey ribbon = the interquartile range. Confidence in the estimated values is indicated by shading with reduced shading corresponding to reduced confidence.
| Estimate | |
|---|---|
| Cases with date of onset on the day of report generation | 102 – 379 |
| Expected change in daily cases | Increasing |
| Effective reproduction no. | 1.3 – 2.3 |
| Rate of spread | -0.11 – 0.18 |
| Doubling time (days) | 3.9 – Cases decreasing |
| Adjusted R-squared | -0.17 – 0.86 |
Table 10: Latest estimates of the number of cases by date of onset, the expected change in daily cases, the effective reproduction number, the rate of spread, the doubling time, and the adjusted R-squared of the exponential fit. Based on the last 7 days of data. The 95% credible interval is shown for each numeric estimate.
Figure 23: A.) Cases by date of report (bars) and estimated cases by date of onset. B.) Time-varying estimate of the effective reproduction number. Light grey ribbon = 95% credible interval. Dark grey ribbon = the interquartile range. Confidence in the estimated values is indicated by shading with reduced shading corresponding to reduced confidence.
Figure 24: A.) Time-varying estimate of the rate of spread, B.) Time-varying estimate of the doubling time in days (note that when the rate of spread is negative the doubling time is assumed to be infinite), C.) The adjusted R-squared estimates indicating the goodness of fit of the exponential regression model (with values closer to 1 indicating a better fit). Light grey ribbon = 95% credible interval; dark grey ribbon = the interquartile range. Confidence in the estimated values is indicated by shading with reduced shading corresponding to reduced confidence.
| Estimate | |
|---|---|
| Cases with date of onset on the day of report generation | 2452 – 5808 |
| Expected change in daily cases | Increasing |
| Effective reproduction no. | 1.3 – 2 |
| Rate of spread | 0.034 – 0.18 |
| Doubling time (days) | 3.9 – 20 |
| Adjusted R-squared | 0.48 – 0.91 |
Table 11: Latest estimates of the number of cases by date of onset, the expected change in daily cases, the effective reproduction number, the rate of spread, the doubling time, and the adjusted R-squared of the exponential fit. Based on the last 7 days of data. The 95% credible interval is shown for each numeric estimate.
Figure 25: A.) Cases by date of report (bars) and estimated cases by date of onset. B.) Time-varying estimate of the effective reproduction number. Light grey ribbon = 95% credible interval. Dark grey ribbon = the interquartile range. Confidence in the estimated values is indicated by shading with reduced shading corresponding to reduced confidence.
Figure 26: A.) Time-varying estimate of the rate of spread, B.) Time-varying estimate of the doubling time in days (note that when the rate of spread is negative the doubling time is assumed to be infinite), C.) The adjusted R-squared estimates indicating the goodness of fit of the exponential regression model (with values closer to 1 indicating a better fit). Light grey ribbon = 95% credible interval; dark grey ribbon = the interquartile range. Confidence in the estimated values is indicated by shading with reduced shading corresponding to reduced confidence.
| Estimate | |
|---|---|
| Cases with date of onset on the day of report generation | 147 – 274 |
| Expected change in daily cases | Increasing |
| Effective reproduction no. | 1.1 – 1.4 |
| Rate of spread | -0.016 – 0.11 |
| Doubling time (days) | 6.6 – Cases decreasing |
| Adjusted R-squared | -0.1 – 0.69 |
Table 12: Latest estimates of the number of cases by date of onset, the expected change in daily cases, the effective reproduction number, the rate of spread, the doubling time, and the adjusted R-squared of the exponential fit. Based on the last 7 days of data. The 95% credible interval is shown for each numeric estimate.
Figure 27: A.) Cases by date of report (bars) and estimated cases by date of onset. B.) Time-varying estimate of the effective reproduction number. Light grey ribbon = 95% credible interval. Dark grey ribbon = the interquartile range. Confidence in the estimated values is indicated by shading with reduced shading corresponding to reduced confidence.
Figure 28: A.) Time-varying estimate of the rate of spread, B.) Time-varying estimate of the doubling time in days (note that when the rate of spread is negative the doubling time is assumed to be infinite), C.) The adjusted R-squared estimates indicating the goodness of fit of the exponential regression model (with values closer to 1 indicating a better fit). Light grey ribbon = 95% credible interval; dark grey ribbon = the interquartile range. Confidence in the estimated values is indicated by shading with reduced shading corresponding to reduced confidence.
| Estimate | |
|---|---|
| Cases with date of onset on the day of report generation | 2 – 24 |
| Expected change in daily cases | Increasing |
| Effective reproduction no. | 1.6 – 4 |
| Rate of spread | -0.74 – 0.74 |
| Doubling time (days) | 0.94 – Cases decreasing |
| Adjusted R-squared | -1 – 0.64 |
Table 13: Latest estimates of the number of cases by date of onset, the expected change in daily cases, the effective reproduction number, the rate of spread, the doubling time, and the adjusted R-squared of the exponential fit. Based on the last 7 days of data. The 95% credible interval is shown for each numeric estimate.
Figure 29: A.) Cases by date of report (bars) and estimated cases by date of onset. B.) Time-varying estimate of the effective reproduction number. Light grey ribbon = 95% credible interval. Dark grey ribbon = the interquartile range. Confidence in the estimated values is indicated by shading with reduced shading corresponding to reduced confidence.
Figure 30: A.) Time-varying estimate of the rate of spread, B.) Time-varying estimate of the doubling time in days (note that when the rate of spread is negative the doubling time is assumed to be infinite), C.) The adjusted R-squared estimates indicating the goodness of fit of the exponential regression model (with values closer to 1 indicating a better fit). Light grey ribbon = 95% credible interval; dark grey ribbon = the interquartile range. Confidence in the estimated values is indicated by shading with reduced shading corresponding to reduced confidence.
| Estimate | |
|---|---|
| Cases with date of onset on the day of report generation | 220 – 536 |
| Expected change in daily cases | Increasing |
| Effective reproduction no. | 1.2 – 2 |
| Rate of spread | -0.14 – 0.17 |
| Doubling time (days) | 4.2 – Cases decreasing |
| Adjusted R-squared | -0.19 – 0.95 |
Table 14: Latest estimates of the number of cases by date of onset, the expected change in daily cases, the effective reproduction number, the rate of spread, the doubling time, and the adjusted R-squared of the exponential fit. Based on the last 7 days of data. The 95% credible interval is shown for each numeric estimate.
Figure 31: A.) Cases by date of report (bars) and estimated cases by date of onset. B.) Time-varying estimate of the effective reproduction number. Light grey ribbon = 95% credible interval. Dark grey ribbon = the interquartile range. Confidence in the estimated values is indicated by shading with reduced shading corresponding to reduced confidence.
Figure 32: A.) Time-varying estimate of the rate of spread, B.) Time-varying estimate of the doubling time in days (note that when the rate of spread is negative the doubling time is assumed to be infinite), C.) The adjusted R-squared estimates indicating the goodness of fit of the exponential regression model (with values closer to 1 indicating a better fit). Light grey ribbon = 95% credible interval; dark grey ribbon = the interquartile range. Confidence in the estimated values is indicated by shading with reduced shading corresponding to reduced confidence.
| Estimate | |
|---|---|
| Cases with date of onset on the day of report generation | 31 – 134 |
| Expected change in daily cases | Increasing |
| Effective reproduction no. | 1.2 – 2.3 |
| Rate of spread | -0.32 – 0.22 |
| Doubling time (days) | 3.2 – Cases decreasing |
| Adjusted R-squared | 0.13 – 0.98 |
Table 15: Latest estimates of the number of cases by date of onset, the expected change in daily cases, the effective reproduction number, the rate of spread, the doubling time, and the adjusted R-squared of the exponential fit. Based on the last 7 days of data. The 95% credible interval is shown for each numeric estimate.
Figure 33: A.) Cases by date of report (bars) and estimated cases by date of onset. B.) Time-varying estimate of the effective reproduction number. Light grey ribbon = 95% credible interval. Dark grey ribbon = the interquartile range. Confidence in the estimated values is indicated by shading with reduced shading corresponding to reduced confidence.
Figure 34: A.) Time-varying estimate of the rate of spread, B.) Time-varying estimate of the doubling time in days (note that when the rate of spread is negative the doubling time is assumed to be infinite), C.) The adjusted R-squared estimates indicating the goodness of fit of the exponential regression model (with values closer to 1 indicating a better fit). Light grey ribbon = 95% credible interval; dark grey ribbon = the interquartile range. Confidence in the estimated values is indicated by shading with reduced shading corresponding to reduced confidence.
| Estimate | |
|---|---|
| Cases with date of onset on the day of report generation | 17 – 56 |
| Expected change in daily cases | Increasing |
| Effective reproduction no. | 1.5 – 2.2 |
| Rate of spread | -0.1 – 0.3 |
| Doubling time (days) | 2.3 – Cases decreasing |
| Adjusted R-squared | -0.19 – 0.92 |
Table 16: Latest estimates of the number of cases by date of onset, the expected change in daily cases, the effective reproduction number, the rate of spread, the doubling time, and the adjusted R-squared of the exponential fit. Based on the last 7 days of data. The 95% credible interval is shown for each numeric estimate.
Figure 35: A.) Cases by date of report (bars) and estimated cases by date of onset. B.) Time-varying estimate of the effective reproduction number. Light grey ribbon = 95% credible interval. Dark grey ribbon = the interquartile range. Confidence in the estimated values is indicated by shading with reduced shading corresponding to reduced confidence.
Figure 36: A.) Time-varying estimate of the rate of spread, B.) Time-varying estimate of the doubling time in days (note that when the rate of spread is negative the doubling time is assumed to be infinite), C.) The adjusted R-squared estimates indicating the goodness of fit of the exponential regression model (with values closer to 1 indicating a better fit). Light grey ribbon = 95% credible interval; dark grey ribbon = the interquartile range. Confidence in the estimated values is indicated by shading with reduced shading corresponding to reduced confidence.
| Estimate | |
|---|---|
| Cases with date of onset on the day of report generation | 31 – 166 |
| Expected change in daily cases | Increasing |
| Effective reproduction no. | 1.3 – 2.6 |
| Rate of spread | -0.099 – 0.2 |
| Doubling time (days) | 3.5 – Cases decreasing |
| Adjusted R-squared | -0.03 – 0.94 |
Table 17: Latest estimates of the number of cases by date of onset, the expected change in daily cases, the effective reproduction number, the rate of spread, the doubling time, and the adjusted R-squared of the exponential fit. Based on the last 7 days of data. The 95% credible interval is shown for each numeric estimate.
Figure 37: A.) Cases by date of report (bars) and estimated cases by date of onset. B.) Time-varying estimate of the effective reproduction number. Light grey ribbon = 95% credible interval. Dark grey ribbon = the interquartile range. Confidence in the estimated values is indicated by shading with reduced shading corresponding to reduced confidence.
Figure 38: A.) Time-varying estimate of the rate of spread, B.) Time-varying estimate of the doubling time in days (note that when the rate of spread is negative the doubling time is assumed to be infinite), C.) The adjusted R-squared estimates indicating the goodness of fit of the exponential regression model (with values closer to 1 indicating a better fit). Light grey ribbon = 95% credible interval; dark grey ribbon = the interquartile range. Confidence in the estimated values is indicated by shading with reduced shading corresponding to reduced confidence.
| Estimate | |
|---|---|
| Cases with date of onset on the day of report generation | 112 – 379 |
| Expected change in daily cases | Increasing |
| Effective reproduction no. | 1.1 – 1.8 |
| Rate of spread | -0.13 – 0.16 |
| Doubling time (days) | 4.2 – Cases decreasing |
| Adjusted R-squared | -0.12 – 0.93 |
Table 18: Latest estimates of the number of cases by date of onset, the expected change in daily cases, the effective reproduction number, the rate of spread, the doubling time, and the adjusted R-squared of the exponential fit. Based on the last 7 days of data. The 95% credible interval is shown for each numeric estimate.
Figure 39: A.) Cases by date of report (bars) and estimated cases by date of onset. B.) Time-varying estimate of the effective reproduction number. Light grey ribbon = 95% credible interval. Dark grey ribbon = the interquartile range. Confidence in the estimated values is indicated by shading with reduced shading corresponding to reduced confidence.
Figure 40: A.) Time-varying estimate of the rate of spread, B.) Time-varying estimate of the doubling time in days (note that when the rate of spread is negative the doubling time is assumed to be infinite), C.) The adjusted R-squared estimates indicating the goodness of fit of the exponential regression model (with values closer to 1 indicating a better fit). Light grey ribbon = 95% credible interval; dark grey ribbon = the interquartile range. Confidence in the estimated values is indicated by shading with reduced shading corresponding to reduced confidence.
| Estimate | |
|---|---|
| Cases with date of onset on the day of report generation | 99 – 461 |
| Expected change in daily cases | Increasing |
| Effective reproduction no. | 1.2 – 2.2 |
| Rate of spread | 0.015 – 0.3 |
| Doubling time (days) | 2.3 – 47 |
| Adjusted R-squared | 0.15 – 0.89 |
Table 19: Latest estimates of the number of cases by date of onset, the expected change in daily cases, the effective reproduction number, the rate of spread, the doubling time, and the adjusted R-squared of the exponential fit. Based on the last 7 days of data. The 95% credible interval is shown for each numeric estimate.
Figure 41: A.) Cases by date of report (bars) and estimated cases by date of onset. B.) Time-varying estimate of the effective reproduction number. Light grey ribbon = 95% credible interval. Dark grey ribbon = the interquartile range. Confidence in the estimated values is indicated by shading with reduced shading corresponding to reduced confidence.
Figure 42: A.) Time-varying estimate of the rate of spread, B.) Time-varying estimate of the doubling time in days (note that when the rate of spread is negative the doubling time is assumed to be infinite), C.) The adjusted R-squared estimates indicating the goodness of fit of the exponential regression model (with values closer to 1 indicating a better fit). Light grey ribbon = 95% credible interval; dark grey ribbon = the interquartile range. Confidence in the estimated values is indicated by shading with reduced shading corresponding to reduced confidence.
| Estimate | |
|---|---|
| Cases with date of onset on the day of report generation | 45 – 114 |
| Expected change in daily cases | Increasing |
| Effective reproduction no. | 1.5 – 2.5 |
| Rate of spread | 0.026 – 0.3 |
| Doubling time (days) | 2.3 – 26 |
| Adjusted R-squared | 0.073 – 0.94 |
Table 20: Latest estimates of the number of cases by date of onset, the expected change in daily cases, the effective reproduction number, the rate of spread, the doubling time, and the adjusted R-squared of the exponential fit. Based on the last 7 days of data. The 95% credible interval is shown for each numeric estimate.
Figure 43: A.) Cases by date of report (bars) and estimated cases by date of onset. B.) Time-varying estimate of the effective reproduction number. Light grey ribbon = 95% credible interval. Dark grey ribbon = the interquartile range. Confidence in the estimated values is indicated by shading with reduced shading corresponding to reduced confidence.
Figure 44: A.) Time-varying estimate of the rate of spread, B.) Time-varying estimate of the doubling time in days (note that when the rate of spread is negative the doubling time is assumed to be infinite), C.) The adjusted R-squared estimates indicating the goodness of fit of the exponential regression model (with values closer to 1 indicating a better fit). Light grey ribbon = 95% credible interval; dark grey ribbon = the interquartile range. Confidence in the estimated values is indicated by shading with reduced shading corresponding to reduced confidence.
| Estimate | |
|---|---|
| Cases with date of onset on the day of report generation | 16 – 91 |
| Expected change in daily cases | Increasing |
| Effective reproduction no. | 1.4 – 3 |
| Rate of spread | -0.25 – 0.2 |
| Doubling time (days) | 3.5 – Cases decreasing |
| Adjusted R-squared | -0.25 – 0.86 |
Table 21: Latest estimates of the number of cases by date of onset, the expected change in daily cases, the effective reproduction number, the rate of spread, the doubling time, and the adjusted R-squared of the exponential fit. Based on the last 7 days of data. The 95% credible interval is shown for each numeric estimate.
Figure 45: A.) Cases by date of report (bars) and estimated cases by date of onset. B.) Time-varying estimate of the effective reproduction number. Light grey ribbon = 95% credible interval. Dark grey ribbon = the interquartile range. Confidence in the estimated values is indicated by shading with reduced shading corresponding to reduced confidence.
Figure 46: A.) Time-varying estimate of the rate of spread, B.) Time-varying estimate of the doubling time in days (note that when the rate of spread is negative the doubling time is assumed to be infinite), C.) The adjusted R-squared estimates indicating the goodness of fit of the exponential regression model (with values closer to 1 indicating a better fit). Light grey ribbon = 95% credible interval; dark grey ribbon = the interquartile range. Confidence in the estimated values is indicated by shading with reduced shading corresponding to reduced confidence.
| Estimate | |
|---|---|
| Cases with date of onset on the day of report generation | 503 – 836 |
| Expected change in daily cases | Increasing |
| Effective reproduction no. | 1.3 – 1.8 |
| Rate of spread | 0.016 – 0.16 |
| Doubling time (days) | 4.4 – 43 |
| Adjusted R-squared | 0.056 – 0.89 |
Table 22: Latest estimates of the number of cases by date of onset, the expected change in daily cases, the effective reproduction number, the rate of spread, the doubling time, and the adjusted R-squared of the exponential fit. Based on the last 7 days of data. The 95% credible interval is shown for each numeric estimate.
Figure 47: A.) Cases by date of report (bars) and estimated cases by date of onset. B.) Time-varying estimate of the effective reproduction number. Light grey ribbon = 95% credible interval. Dark grey ribbon = the interquartile range. Confidence in the estimated values is indicated by shading with reduced shading corresponding to reduced confidence.
Figure 48: A.) Time-varying estimate of the rate of spread, B.) Time-varying estimate of the doubling time in days (note that when the rate of spread is negative the doubling time is assumed to be infinite), C.) The adjusted R-squared estimates indicating the goodness of fit of the exponential regression model (with values closer to 1 indicating a better fit). Light grey ribbon = 95% credible interval; dark grey ribbon = the interquartile range. Confidence in the estimated values is indicated by shading with reduced shading corresponding to reduced confidence.
Abbott, Sam, Joel Hellewell, James D. Munday, and Sebastian Funk. 2020. “NCoVUtils: Utility Functions for the 2019-Ncov Outbreak.” - - (-): –. https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.3635417.
Dipartimento della Protezione Civile. n.d. “Dati COVID-19 Italia.” https://github.com/pcm-dpc/COVID-19.
Xu, Bo, Bernardo Gutierrez, Sarah Hill, Samuel Scarpino, Alyssa Loskill, Jessie Wu, Kara Sewalk, et al. 2020. “Epidemiological Data from the nCoV-2019 Outbreak: Early Descriptions from Publicly Available Data.” Accessed on 2020-01-26 from http://virological.org/t/epidemiological-data-from-the-ncov-2019-outbreak-early-descriptions-from-publicly-available-data/337.
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